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Probability, mindlessness and periodicity

I bought my current cell phone in mid January 2008, which means I have had it for ~830 days.

I tend not to lose sight of the few things I keep on me at all times - Keys, wallet and cell phone. In this 830 day period, I doubt I have forgotten my phone for more than three days. Ok, lets just add some extra five days, for times I have travelled without the phone charger, resulting in me not having a phone available. So, eight days out of 830 gives us that the probability for me accidentally not having access to my phone for a whole day is close to 0.01, or 1% ⇒ P(stupid) ≅ 0.01.

I am not a heavy phone user. Far from it, I tend not to like using the phone. My calls are always kept to the minimum necessary, and I would not be surprised if I used my phone typically less than twice per week. However, there is a recurring event that makes my phone ring more often during certain very well defined periods of the year, with 1/365 probability. So, lets call this P(birthday) ≅ 0.00273.

Yesterday I spent the day with some good, very long time friends. We did the April Ciclotón - I biked for 42 very nice kilometers, they did 36 (as we met 8Km away from my home ;-) )… but yes, after a while, I left my phone at my friends’ table.

So I guess today the phone will ring way more insistently than usual. At a table far away from home. With a probability of P(stupid ∩ birthday) ≅ 2.73 × 10⁻⁵.

So I’m facing the enjoyment of a very improbable day!


gwolf 2010-04-26 21:29:07

Muy agradecido, muy agradecido!

A mi queridísima y tan lejana, tan fanática y tan seguidora :) Ok, ahora entiendo cuál es ese medio de comunicación de alta latencia al cual hacías referencia ;-) ¡Besos!

gwolf 2010-04-26 21:39:35

Designios del subconsciente…

Quién sabe qué es lo que verdaderamente pase por los remansos más ocultos de mi enfermo ser ;-)

pooka 2010-04-26 21:45:00

**Actos del inconciente **

Actos del inconsciente de Gunnar. No, del inconsciente de la psique, del inconsciente que eres ;)

Me parece que es un clara señal de no deseas ser molestado, pero que crees… ahora la microblogosfera sabe de tu cumple, así que a menos que pierdas la computadora y cualquier cosa que te conecte mañana a la Internet tendrás felicitaciones.

Y pues ya que que estamos en esas a 17 min pa el cumple, felicidades.

Chale, el otro CAPTCHA se veía mejor ;)

reg 2010-04-26 20:48:15

feliz cumple….

si, aqui ya es oficialmente 27 de abril… alla falta aun hora y media! ya vez, las matematics y las estdisticas en particular pueden decir que hay cosas que son casi imposibles por improbables….pero no es asi… hay cosas que suceden, mas alla de los numeros. muy feliz cumple, gunnar wolf!

vicm3 2010-04-26 21:31:06

Feliz Cumpleaños

:P Lo dejaste a propósito, que te compre quien no te conozca.

Felicidades (si se que falta media hora, en GMT-500).

Zack 2010-04-27 02:24:13

fun, birthday, enjoy

Possibly the most fun birthday-blog-post I’ve ever read. Thanks for it and happy birthday! :-)